Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.

Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose ( Cistus ladanifer L.) historical future distribution, a typically species with abundant occurrence North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, Southern France. R ensemble modeling approach was made using biomod2 package assess changes of Last Interglacial (LIG), Glacial Maximum (LGM), Middle Holocene (MH), present, (for years 2050 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5). current potential modeled 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 MRI-CGCM3, were used forecast past suitability. area equal 15.8 14.1% study for LIG conditions, while it decreased 3.8% LGM. presence diaminished more than half (to 6.8% 7% too low figure (2.2%) worst-case scenario 8.5) 2070. results suggested that climatic conditions are most suitable environmental may lead loss habitats, especially scenario. information unfolded by this will help understand predictable desertification region policymakers implement possible measures biodiversity maintenance avoidance.